For Democrats, it was an exhilarating legislative session. For Republicans, it was often agonizing. But both sides tend to agree on one thing: Democrats are likely to retain their grip on political power in Oregon for some time. Political analysts now portray the 2006 election as a watershed that heralded a years-long shift in political control, much as 1994 brought Republicans to majority power in Congress and the Oregon Senate.
Gov. Ted Kulongoski and the Democrats aided their long-term prospects this session by delivering most of what they promised. "It really is the beginning of a progressive decade," said House Speaker Jeff Merkley, D-Portland. "We're just getting started."
Democrats passed a long list of reforms and budgets that should please the party's base among workers and labor unions, environmentalists, women, the poor, gays and lesbians. And they championed causes with a broader appeal: a new state Rainy Day Fund, hiring 100 more state troopers and revamping political ethics rules.
Adding to Republicans' woes: a president and party standard-bearer who is slumping in popularity and blamed for a quagmire in Iraq.
"I think 2008 is going to be a very difficult year for Republicans," Kulongoski said after the 2007 session ended.
Chuck Adams, a top political strategist for House Republicans, called the GOP's prospects at retaking the House next year a long shot.
Democrats "delivered for their constituents," in the 2007 session, and Oregon Republicans are being dragged down by Bush and the war in Iraq, Adams said.
"It's contaminating our national message and brand," Adams said. "We are totally branded, more so than what I've ever seen."
House battleground
No one expects Democrats to lose their hold on the Senate any time soon. They have a 18-11 majority, and are likely to win the seat of retiring independent Avel Gordly of Portland.
The House, where Democrats are nursing a 31-29 majority, will be the key battleground.
House Republicans devoted considerable energy in the 2007 session on tactics designed to regain ground in the 2008 elections that they lost in 2006. They repeatedly used parliamentary maneuvers to force House floor votes on bills that had no chance of passing. Then they highlighted Democrats' votes on those measures in a series of campaign mailers, radio ads, and automated "robo calls" that targeted Democrats in swing seats. Those included Brian Clem of Salem and Betty Komp of Woodburn.
But House Democrats had a bumper crop of rookie lawmakers this year, and Kulongoski predicted they will have an easy time recruiting for 2008 races.
The 2007 session "shows you can make a difference," the governor said. "You can come in and make life better for the people of this state."
In contrast, House Republicans are now facing "minority party-itis," as one influential lobbyist termed it. It's less appealing to run if you think you're going to lack the clout that comes with majority-party status.
"There'll be more Republicans not coming back than Democrats," predicted business lobbyist Tom Gallagher.
House Republican Leader Wayne Scott of Canby said after the session that he only knew of one House Republican not running again: former Speaker Karen Minnis of Wood Village. "This will be the third time that I've recruited, and things are going quite well," Scott said.
However, Rep. Brian Boquist of Dallas and Rep. Donna Nelson of McMinnville are unlikely to seek re-election and are trying to recruit local Republicans to run in their stead. In interviews with several lobbyists and political analysts, a handful of other House Republicans were mentioned as people who might not run again.
One of them is Scott. Many insiders are openly discussing Rep. Bruce Hanna, R-Roseburg, as Scott's successor as caucus leader.
With today's House district boundaries, only about a dozen House races are considered competitive, because voter registration is one-sided in most districts. Seats without incumbents running again become battlegrounds. Democrats like their chances of picking up Minnis's and Scott's seats.
Democrats have a strong voter-registration edge in Minnis's seat, and Oregon City Mayor Alice Norris would make a strong Democratic candidate in Scott's seat, said Alan Tresidder, an influential Democratic lobbyist.
"It's going to be very difficult for the Republicans to defend seats," Gallagher said.
Political dominoes
Democrats also are losing some incumbents. Gordly and Sen. Kate Brown, D-Portland, aren't running for re-election. Multiple sources said Rep. Carolyn Tomei, D-Milwaukie, and Sen. Ryan Deckert, D-Beaverton, likely won't run again.
None of those seats are considered ripe for Republicans to win when incumbents leave.
A bigger factor may be the four statewide races on the 2008 ballot: U.S. Senate, secretary of state, attorney general and state treasurer. Several senators are known to be weighing those races. Those who do run could open up their seats, and House members are the logical candidates to step up.
If, as expected, Sen. Ben Westlund, D-Tumalo, runs for treasurer, Rep. Chuck Burley, R-Bend, is considered a favorite to take that seat away from Democrats. But Democrats then would have a shot at taking Burley's House seat.
New leaders
Those statewide races also could shake up Democratic leadership in the House and Senate.
Brown, who gave up her post as Senate majority leader as the session ended, is considered a top prospect for a statewide run.
"Kate Brown didn't resign from the majority office to go to a nunnery," Gallagher said.
Brown's post was filled by Sen. Richard Devlin, D-Tualatin.
House Speaker Jeff Merkley, D-Portland, also could challenge U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Pendleton. Merkley would have to give up his powerful House post after one term.
Multiple sources said there could be a battle for House majority leader, the No. 2 post in the chamber. Rep. Diane Rosenbaum, D-Portland, who lost an earlier bid for the job to Dave Hunt, D-Gladstone, may try again. House Democrats will name some new leaders July 12 in a caucus meeting at the Capitol.
Despite fretting among Republicans that Oregon is a Blue State getting even bluer, conservatives play a huge role in the state's wide-open initiative process. Conservative activists Bill Sizemore and Kevin Mannix, among others, are busy working on numerous ballot measures for 2008.
That arena figures to be the place where Republicans may have their greatest prospects for shaping the future of Oregon in this period.
(statesmanjournal.com)
